Can Leicester get over their Heineken Cup loss, can Edinburgh finally offer a seriously competetive Scottish team, will the Blues add to their ever increasing stock, can London Irish and Harlequins continue the super human effort of last year.  And what about Ulster, can they pull themselves out of the mire, are Gloucester a spent force, are the Ospreys merely show ponies or is there some steely determination in there (somewhere) and what about the red and blue powerhouses of Munster and Leinster? 

With Ireland pretty much wrapping up the northern hemisphere last season (Magners League Champions, Heineken Cup Champions, Triple Crown Champions, Six Nations Champions and a Grand Slam to boot) all eyes will be focused on the Emerald Isle.  Munster have signed Jean De Villers, Leinster have lost Rocky Elsom, Ulster have a new management team.  The Lions tour was a fantastic experience, with Tommy Bowe, Rob Kearney, David Wallace and the indomintable O’Driscoll featuring prominently but what of the 2009-10 season.  To match it in success would be a towering achievement, but it doesn’t take a soothsayer to predict that it is unlikely.   Munster will always be one of the teams to beat but the Magners League will be a different proposition this season.  It is high time the Blues stepped up to the plate and offer some competition, the Ospreys are there or there abouts in most seasons, as are Leinster, but the team I hope to push on to greater things are the Edinburgh Gunners.  At home they are a very difficult team to beat and if they an improve their away form, who knows how close they may come.   I fear for Glasgow, Connacht and the Newport Gwent Dragons.  All three teams struggle to compete financially and the gap is ever increasing between them and the rest of the league.  I also worry for the financial stability of the Scarlets, the new stadium has not attracted the supporters (much the same as the Liberty) and if this continues, they will struggle to exist let alone compete.

This moves us onto the Guiness Premiership, probably the most competetive league with the T14.   Leicester were by far the best team and I personally hope that the Gloucester myth has finally been put to bed.  Looking at the teams who are likely to compete, I would suggest that Quins have a fantastic chance and a charge from Northampton would also not be unsurprising.  I fear Wasps have another season of rebuilding.  The replacements they have brought in certainly do not look as good as those who have left.  Due to his media profile, Danny Cipriani will certainly be followed with interest to see if his undoubted talent can finally be given a platform in which to shine… one wonders what would have been had he been 3 years older and playing behind a Wasps pack of old.  

What of Newcastle, Sale, Saracens, Worcester, London Irish, Leeds and the beleagued Bath?  I suspect a strong challenge from Irish and Sale - to offer some stern resistence, if not sustained success but the others will have a real fight on their hands. 

The biggest tournament of all kicks off in early October.  Pool’s 3 and 5 look utterly horrendous and much will depend on who sneaks away bonus points.  Tips?  Not a chance, I’ve learnt far too often never to lay your bets on a team before the first 3 games.  But that is what makes this such a mesmerising tournament, it can be yours but slip through your grasp in a blink of an eye, ask Sale, Munster, Llanelli Scarlets, Cardiff Blues… the list goes on and on.  If I am to put my neck on the line, I’m guessing that if they take is seriously, Clermont are definate contenders along with Leicester, the Blues and of course, Munster and Leinster, although whether Leinster can successfully defend such a difficult tournament, I very much doubt.

The last area to look at are the internationals in the autumn as I will write something else for the 6 Nations.  England welcome Australia, Argentina then New Zealand.  I would suspect that England will be looking at a 2 from 3 success ratio, whether it is achieveable is another question.  Simon Shaw, Riki Flutey, Lee Mears and Andrew Sheriden increased their profiles on the Lions tour to varying degrees, but the one player who shone out above most others was Tom Croft.  The issue I have with England is that some of their best players like to play with ball in hand whereas as a team they are not comfortable with this.  The perenial fly half question will remain for some time and the underlying questions about the suspect defence of their back line will remain until they find a defensive centre who plays like Noon but attacks like Tait. 

Scotland have some serious work to do.  The always seem to offer a set of forwards that, on paper, looks great.  At scrum half they have a wealth of talent but then it simply drys up.  There is more creativity in 5 minutes of Blue Peter than within their inside backs.  On the wings, the Lamont brothers, the Evans brothers and Nicky Walker offer some great options, the question is how do they get the ball to them and in space.

Wales probably have the most to look forward to, yet the most trepidation.  Confidence is always a precious and unquantifiable thing within Welsh teams and dispite the strength they have in the back row (with the exception of no.7 although Sam Warburton definately bodes well), there is always a worry in the front 5 and with no adam jones and gethin jenkins this may rear its head again.  In the back line, the Lions tour will have done wonders for the confidence of Phillips, Jones, Hook and especially Roberts and that is not considering the exceptional skills of Shane Williams, Dwayne Peel, Leigh Halfpenny, Leigh Byrne, Tom Shanklin and the enigmatic Gavin Henson.  It is quite possible that Wales could put out a 2nd string backline which would match most in the northern hemisphere, but its whether they can get the ball to them quick enough and most importantly of all for the Welsh wings, in space.  With NZ, Argentina, Samoa and Australia to play it is likely that Wales will be looking for at least a 2 out 4 including one of NZ or Australia (they are likely to put out a Welsh development or 2nd XV once) but, if confidence is there and they beat NZ in the first game then a very successful Autum series is on the cards.

Finally this brings us to Ireland, the champions of just about everything the Northern Hemisphere can throw at you.  The odds of a repeat season are probably the longest in history, based upon their 1st grand slam in 60-odd years.  Concentrating on what’s ahead, there are some areas of concern for Declan Kidney.  When to blood a replacement for O’Gara, who else can they use in the front row and just how long can O’Driscoll play for before he completely falls apart, I mean, lets be honest the man must be made of adamantium or other such material of fantastical properties!

Up front O’Connell, Wallace, O’Callaghan, Flannery and possibly Horan will continually offer dynamism.  Coupled with the dancing feet of Ferris, one suspects they have the strength to compete against all. 

One would guess that Wales and Ireland hold the cards but we shall see.

I for one cannot wait for it all to start!

I personally do not subscribe to those that say the quarter finals of the Heineken Cup are a reflection of a National team’s health and well being.  If that is the case, Wales would have contributed their usual quarter final representation - zero, nadder, ziltch, not a sausage. 

2008 however, offers their best representation since probably the 2000/1 season when Cardiff and Swansea both got soundly hammered on a pair of one way tickets down a dark alley.  The national team, despite some great talk by the media about ‘revitalised confidence’ have not really progressed and even the Dream Team themselves of Gatland, Edwards and Howley cannot be expected to turn much around in a two week training session.  Wales have always talked about having confidence by the absolute shed load, but maybe even that high talk has been diluted by recent events.  One thing is for sure, unless they perform on February 2nd against a team which I think may not be the shoe-in for the title that is being predicted, another false dawn will be predicted by the doom-mongers who still persist in the Welsh press.  Time is at premium for the Dream Team.

 So what about Ireland?  Their abject performance in France during the autumn was probably worse than Wales’ and that is saying something!  However, Eddie O’Sullivan was kept on board with a 4 year contract, evidence in itself that the Irish feel they have the right man.  Keith Wood has come out this week saying that there are issues with the structure, and I would have offer my (not insignificant) support this.  Ireland, with the exception of Andrew Trimble and Donnacha O’Callaghan do not seem to have blooded enough youngsters.  

Does all this reflect on their Heineken Cup quarter final representation?  I don’t think there is correlation despite Ulster being in a rut (they were never likely to present a serious threat to their group).  Leinster are not so much the bridesmaids of European rugby, more the Page Boy and it is sometimes hard to fathom how a team blessed with such qualities so often fails to meet the expectation around them.  This leaves Munster, like Ali on the ropes, they seem to rely on their wealth of experience to come out fighting when it matters and batter their way into the quarters each and every year, regardless of how tough their group is.  An admirable side, club and achievement. 

All in all, Ireland have not had the best of years, but the undeniable talent is there and probably needs a refocusing of mental attitude more than too much else.

This has been no French vintage year either.  Perpignan are through due to the ease of their group and the paucity of defence offered by the Newport Gwent Dragons and Treviso, lets not really beat around the bush.  They do look like they could do some serious damage, but not just yet, 2008 is not their year in my humble opinon.  Toulouse on the other hand look like they are beginning to fire on all cylinders, which at times must number in their hundreds.  I suspect their march will be unchecked until next years tournament, as at times they seem to have everything you could ask from a rugby team.

 This leaves us with the English teams, who I suggested would only have two quarter finalists in my last post.  Glasgow offered a real fight and only lost by a score against Saracens and I believe next year, dependant on groupings, both they and Edinburgh will offer far more of a threat (and about time too).   It can be argued that there are better English teams in this year’s tournament than Sarries, Irish and Gloucester, but as with all great sporting tournaments you need a bit of luck to win it… ask Leicester….

This supports my view that the success of European club games does not reflect on the National team.  Sarries, Irish and Gloucester will provide less players cumulatively than Wasps or Leicester individually, to this England team.

Irish look OK, as do Sarries, but I am beginning to worry about Gloucester.  After some excellent early season form, the wheels are beginning to fall off.  Munster I predict, will destroy them upfront in Kingholm, something the Shed will find hard to swallow.  Irish I fancy will have the edge on Perpignan and their quarter-final will go the same way as their pool games.  Sarries against an Ospreys all-stars [sic] is probably the tightest of the round.  I think the Ospreys will sneak this, simply due to the momentum they are carrying at present.

This leaves Heineken Cup semi’s of Ospreys v Munster in Cardiff and London Irish v Toulouse in London.  Time will tell and suspect there will be plenty of water under the bridge until then….

http://www.planetrugby.com/sixnations/Story/0,19022,3820_3055699,00.html

Ahhh the usual myopia from the press.  This is a new English team which will not have played together so announcing that they have won the tournment before it starts is stretching it a bit.  Player power and professional pride obviously got them through to the World Cup Final (and they deserve the all the paludits which they received), but to say England have it wrapped up 3 weeks before kick off is not only short sighted, but smacks of the inherant arrogance which is what gets us celts’ goats’ so much.  Not to mention that those who dragged the English team’s sorry arses from the depths of that hammering by SA to the final are no longer in the team and said new players, many in key positions, have no real international record or experience (especially of say, playing for the Calcutta Cup in Murrayfield…better English teams have come and gone, tried and failed, in years gone by)

Surely England and their press must have learnt that declaring that they will merely canter to win [insert tournament name here] and hardly get out of second gear in doing so, only lines them up for greater falls?  Their World Cup winning team took some 5 or 6 attempts to win a Grand Slam, despite declaring before the start of every years tournament that they were simply too good to be involved in such a mediocre tournament as the 6 Nations and should obviously shack up with our antipodean colleagues and flick the v’s to world rugby.  Oh how hard we laughed when they scraped 4th place in the tournament a couple of years later and just about avoided 5th the following season…. what goes around comes around, and sport, by its very nature is cyclical.  The English press would do well to appreciate this fact.

In saying that England do have excellent strength in depth at the moment and their league is by far the best of any of the Northern Hemispheres.  The clubs are doing supurb jobs of blooding and grooming the obvious young talent that is at their disposal and it is paying dividends.  However, come Monday the Heineken Cup which is the defacto barometer of sucess throughout Europe, could only have two English clubs in the quarter-finals… Glasgow is no easy place to go and win as their home record demonstrates.  As for London Irish and Gloucester, well Gloucester were simply destroyed by the Ospreys last weekend and it is a very strong arguement to say that the Ospreys lost the game at Kingsholm as opposed the Gloucester winning it.  Teams who win the Heineken Cup have an aura of invincibility, something special about them and this current Gloucester team does not have that nor does Irish.  To adopt the English press’s attitude and offer mere speculation, would this English team be as much of a shoehorn for the 6 Nations if there was no English representation in Heineken Cup semi finals?  Something which is quite likely when the permutations are considered.